- Considering the expectations of major players and the anticipated halving in April 2024, Bitcoin price predictions for the coming year vary significantly.
- A multinational British bank expects Bitcoin’s value to reach $50,000 by the end of the current year and believes it could rise as high as $120,000 by the end of 2024.
- As supply decreases due to halvings, research highlights that demand has become the primary driver of Bitcoin’s market price. Historical data shows that there is often an increase in demand following halving events.
What are the expectations of major banks and hedge funds regarding Bitcoin’s price? Different perspectives and Bitcoin price predictions for 2024!
Notable Bitcoin Price Predictions
Considering the expectations of major players and the anticipated halving in April 2024, Bitcoin price predictions for the coming year vary significantly. From JPMorgan to Standard Chartered Bank, here are some of the most notable predictions for 2024:
Pantera Capital: $150,000
Pantera Capital, in its August “Blockchain Letter,” predicts a rise to $147,843 after the 2024 halving, as managed by Dan Morehead. They believe that the price model’s valuation of Bitcoin’s scarcity will become more pronounced by using the stock-to-flow (S2F) ratio. Pantera Capital particularly noted, “The 2020 halving reduced new Bitcoin supply by 43%, and its impact on price was 23%. Historically, it has marked a 148,000-dollar increase after a price of 35,000 dollars before halving.” However, not all Bitcoin supporters agree with this idea, given the recent failed predictions using this model.
Standard Chartered Bank: $120,000
In a research report published in July, Standard Chartered Bank presented an optimistic view of Bitcoin’s potential journey. The multinational British bank expects Bitcoin’s value to reach $50,000 by the end of the current year and believes it could rise as high as $120,000 by the end of 2024. This updated estimate indicates an increase from their previous prediction of up to $100,000 for Bitcoin in April.
The bank’s upgraded forecast is supported by the ongoing banking sector crisis, which is cited as one of the primary reasons for potential price increases. The report also emphasizes the role of Bitcoin miners as a determining factor affecting profitability. Geoff Kendrick, Head of FX and Digital Assets Research, highlights the significant role miners play, stating, “The logic here is that in addition to sustaining the Bitcoin ledger, miners also play a key role in determining the net supply of new mined BTC.”
JPMorgan: $45,000 per Bitcoin
JPMorgan, one of the world’s leading investment banks, expects more limited growth for Bitcoin, predicting it will reach $45,000. This forecast is influenced by rising gold prices, as historically, Bitcoin and gold price movements have shown correlation. Gold prices recently surpassed $2,000 per ounce, supporting JPMorgan’s conservative outlook on Bitcoin.
In a detailed note in May, JPMorgan strategists stated, “With the price of gold exceeding $2,000, the value of gold held for investment purposes outside central bank vaults is approximately $3 trillion. Therefore, this assumes a Bitcoin price of $45,000 based on the assumption that Bitcoin will gain a position similar to gold among private investors.” This viewpoint suggests Bitcoin will reach $45,000 by the same logic.
Matrixport: Up to $125,000 by End of 2024
Matrixport, a prominent crypto service provider, stood out in July when it predicted that Bitcoin could rise to as high as $125,000 by the end of 2024. This optimistic outlook was based on significant signals, including historical price patterns and a crucial signal indicating Bitcoin’s surpassing of $31,000 in mid-July, marking its highest level in the past year. Historically, such milestones have signaled the end of bear markets and the beginning of strong bull markets.
Comparing these patterns with historical data from 2015, 2019, and 2020, Matrixport estimated potential gains of up to 123% in twelve months and up to 310% in eighteen months. These potential Bitcoin prices translate into $65,539 and $125,731, respectively, within those specific timeframes.
Tim Draper: $250,000
Tim Draper, a leading venture capitalist, adopts an extremely optimistic outlook, expecting Bitcoin to reach $250,000 by June 2023. Despite previous predictions that Bitcoin would reach $250,000 by June 2023 not coming to fruition, Draper attributed the short-term decline in BTC to regulatory actions in the United States, such as Coinbase and Binance.
Nevertheless, Draper still believes in Bitcoin’s long-term potential and likely sees it reaching $250,000 by 2024 or 2025. His confidence in Bitcoin’s transformative potential and its long-term value remains unaltered.
Berenberg: $56,630 at Halving
In July, the German investment bank Berenberg revised its prediction, pointing to $56,630 for Bitcoin by April 2024. This upgrade is based on expectations for the next halving period in 2024/25 and increased enthusiasm from leading institutional players.
Berenberg’s analyst team emphasizes two primary factors improving the outlook: Bitcoin halving events and the increased excitement shown by significant institutional players. This confidence in the market is further underscored by Berenberg’s reclassification of Microstrategy’s stock as a “buy,” taking into account the company’s higher BTC holdings and improved outlook for its software business. The bank revised its price target from $430 to $510 as a result.
Blockware Solutions: $400,000
In August, Blockware Intelligence explored the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $400,000 during the next halving period in 2024/25 in an analysis titled “2024 Halving Analysis: Understanding Market Cycles and Opportunities Created by the Halving.” The research identified the halving’s role in shaping market cycles as a central factor. The report highlights how miners, while taking a significant portion of selling pressure, are also forced to sell some to cover operational costs. However, halving events reduce supply by eliminating inefficient miners.
With supply decreasing due to halvings, research emphasizes that demand has become the primary driver of Bitcoin’s market price. Historical data shows that there is often an increase in demand following halving events. As market participants become aware of the supply-side dynamics introduced by halvings, they prepare to deploy capital at the first signs of upward momentum, potentially leading to significant price increases. This increased demand aligns with the positive sentiment observed in current on-chain data regarding halving events.
Beyond these notable predictions, there are numerous forecasts regarding Bitcoin’s future value. These predictions, ranging from Cathie Wood’s (ARK Invest) ambitious $1 million to Mike Novogratz’s (Galaxy Digital) $500,000, Tom Lee’s (Fundstrat Global) $180,000, Robert Kiyosaki’s (Rich Dad Company) $100,000, Adam Back’s $100,000, and Arthur Hayes’s $70,000, reflect various perspectives and highlight different viewpoints on Bitcoin’s future value.
