Bitcoin Recovery May Hinge on ETF Inflows Amid Fed Rate Uncertainty

• Bitcoin’s price has rebounded modestly since the October 10, 2025, flash crash, driven by institutional demand.

• Spot BTC ETFs recorded four straight days of inflows, climbing from $20 million to $202 million daily by October 29, 2025.

• Long-term holders sold over 325,000 BTC in October 2025, valued at approximately $35 billion, capping recovery efforts per CryptoQuant data.

Explore Bitcoin ETF inflows fueling BTC recovery in 2025 amid Fed rate decisions and holder sell-offs. Gain insights on market trends and expert views to stay ahead in crypto investing today.

What Are Bitcoin ETF Inflows and How Do They Impact BTC Price Recovery?

Bitcoin ETF inflows represent investments into exchange-traded funds that hold BTC, providing institutional and retail investors easier access to the asset without direct ownership. In late October 2025, these inflows totaled over $460 million across four consecutive trading days, starting from $20 million and peaking at $202 million on October 29, according to data from SoSo Value. This renewed demand has contributed to BTC’s gradual rebound from the October 10 flash crash, though the price has struggled to surpass $117,000 due to subdued inflow intensity.

The recovery follows a volatile period where BTC dipped sharply before stabilizing around $110,000 to $115,000 levels. Institutional participation remains a key driver, but on-chain metrics indicate that the current pace is insufficient to spark a major rally. Glassnode analysis highlights that daily inflows are below 1,000 BTC, contrasting with over 2,500 BTC seen at the onset of previous cycle highs, suggesting demand is rebuilding but not aggressively enough to overcome selling pressures.

Source: SoSo Value

Despite these positive ETF developments, BTC’s price action has been tempered by broader market dynamics. The improving macroeconomic environment, including expectations of Federal Reserve easing, has provided some tailwinds, but persistent selling from established holders is a significant counterforce. This balance between inflows and outflows underscores the nuanced state of Bitcoin’s market in late 2025.

Why Are Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Selling Off and What Does It Mean for Recovery?

Long-term holders, defined as those retaining BTC for over six months, have offloaded more than 325,000 BTC in October 2025 alone, equivalent to roughly $35 billion at an average price of $110,000 per BTC, based on CryptoQuant metrics. This sharp sell-off marks the most significant monthly drawdown since July 2025, as noted by CryptoQuant analyst JA Marrtunn. Such activity increases supply in an already pressured market, hindering BTC’s ability to break higher resistance levels and contributing to the observed sluggish recovery.

The motivations behind this behavior often tie to profit-taking after substantial gains earlier in the cycle or portfolio rebalancing amid uncertainty. Short sentences for clarity: LTH supply on exchanges has risen notably. This influx dilutes buying momentum from ETFs. Experts suggest it reflects maturing market dynamics where veterans secure gains. Data from CryptoQuant shows LTH balance sheets shrinking by over 3% month-to-date, a level not seen in recent quarters.

Supporting this, the sell-off coincides with improved macro conditions like the anticipated end of quantitative tightening, which could eventually boost liquidity for risk assets including BTC. However, until LTH distribution eases, recovery may remain gradual. Quote from JA Marrtunn: “This was the sharpest monthly drawdown since July 2025,” emphasizing the intensity of the pressure.

Source: CryptoQuant

Glassnode further contextualizes the ETF dynamics, stating: “Inflows remain <1k BTC/day, significantly lower than >2.5k BTC/day seen at the start of major rallies this cycle. Demand is recovering, but not at the intensity of recent rallies.” This expert insight from on-chain analytics reinforces that while ETF inflows are positive, they are not yet robust enough to fully counteract LTH selling.

Source: Glassnode

In the broader context, these factors interplay with global economic signals. The Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision is watched closely, as it could influence liquidity and investor sentiment toward assets like Bitcoin.

Frequently Asked Questions

How Much Have Bitcoin ETF Inflows Contributed to Market Recovery in October 2025?

Bitcoin ETF inflows amassed over $460 million in the last four trading days of October 2025, rising from $20 million to $202 million daily. This institutional demand has supported BTC’s price stabilization post-flash crash, though volumes remain below peak levels needed for aggressive rallies, per on-chain data.

Will the Federal Reserve Rate Decision Boost Bitcoin’s Price in 2025?

The Fed’s rate decision could enhance liquidity and benefit risk assets like Bitcoin by signaling easing policies, potentially lifting BTC toward $160,000 as projected by some analysts. However, weak macro indicators might limit impact, with experts noting risks from ongoing holder sell-offs and market supply pressures.

Key Takeaways

• What’s next for Bitcoin post-Fed rate decision?: Analysts remain divided; optimistic views point to a rally up to $160,000 driven by liquidity boosts, while cautious outlooks highlight minimal effects from subdued economic data.
• Can BTC ETF inflows drive stronger recovery?: Yes, potentially, if daily volumes exceed 2,500 BTC, as current levels under 1,000 BTC are recovering demand but insufficient for major price surges, according to Glassnode.
• Impact of long-term holder sell-offs: Over 325,000 BTC sold in October 2025 adds supply pressure, recommending investors monitor LTH behavior for signs of stabilization to inform buying strategies.

Conclusion

In summary, Bitcoin ETF inflows have provided a vital lifeline for BTC’s recovery in late 2025, countering the effects of long-term holder sell-offs exceeding $35 billion in value. As the Federal Reserve’s rate decision approaches, diverging expert opinions from figures like Tom Lee at Fundstrat and analysts at QCP Capital underscore the potential for both upside rallies and continued caution amid digital asset treasury distresses. Looking ahead, enhanced institutional demand and positive macro shifts could propel BTC higher—investors should track on-chain metrics closely for informed decisions on positioning in this evolving landscape.