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Bitcoin’s recent price consolidation between $100,000 and $110,000 reflects significant profit-taking by mid-to-long-term holders, signaling a healthy market redistribution.
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Despite increased selling from older cohorts, data indicates that the market is effectively absorbing this supply, maintaining price stability amid ongoing demand.
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According to CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei Dent, the movement of long-held coins during this bull cycle is a positive indicator of market strength rather than weakness.
Bitcoin’s price consolidation amid profit-taking by long-term holders suggests a bullish market absorbing selling pressure, with historical trends favoring a July rally.
Profit-Taking by Long-Term Holders Drives Bitcoin’s Price Range Bound Movement
Recent on-chain data from Glassnode reveals that Bitcoin’s trading range between $100,000 and $110,000 is largely influenced by profit-taking activities from mid-to-long-term holders (LTHs). Specifically, coins held for 3–5 years realized approximately $849 million in profits, while those aged 7–10 years cashed out $485 million. Additionally, the 1–2 year cohort contributed $445 million in realized gains. This redistribution of Bitcoin holdings reflects a natural market cycle where seasoned investors secure profits after substantial price appreciation.
Daily realized profits peaked at $2.46 billion, with a 7-day moving average of $1.52 billion, surpassing the year-to-date average of $1.14 billion. Although these figures are below the Q4 2024 highs of $4–5 billion, they underscore sustained profit-taking pressure. However, rather than signaling weakness, this activity demonstrates a healthy rotation of assets, as newer market participants absorb the supply.
Market Absorption and Positive Signals from Coin Movement Metrics
CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei Dent highlights that the consistent movement of older coins, as measured by the Spent Output Age Bands and Binary Coin Days Destroyed metrics, is typical during bull markets. These indicators track when coins of various holding periods are spent, providing insight into market dynamics. Dent emphasizes that the stable Bitcoin price despite increased selling suggests robust demand and effective market absorption.
Moreover, increased activity from coins held 1–3 years indicates profit-taking from buyers of the previous cycle, signaling a transition in market leadership from older holders to newer investors. This shift is interpreted as a sign of market strength, reflecting confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory rather than capitulation.
Historical Trends and Technical Analysis Point to a Potential Bitcoin Rally in July
Historical data supports an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin in July, traditionally one of the strongest months for the asset. Since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged a 7.56% return in July, with notable gains in eight of the last twelve years, including a remarkable 24.03% surge in 2020. This trend aligns with the S&P 500’s decade-long pattern of positive July performance, suggesting that Bitcoin’s price could follow suit.
Technical analysis by CryptoCon highlights a prolonged 195-day sideways consolidation phase since December 18, 2024, characterized by limited price volatility. This “Cycle 4 Ranges Expansion” phase is consistent with historical patterns where extended periods of consolidation precede significant breakouts. Past Bitcoin rallies have typically unfolded over 30 to 40-day windows, followed by sideways corrections, indicating that a breakout toward the $140,000–$150,000 range could be imminent.
Correlation with Risk Assets and Implications for Market Participants
Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with traditional risk assets like the S&P 500 suggests that macroeconomic factors and investor sentiment will play crucial roles in its near-term price action. A strong performance in equities during Q3 often translates into robust returns for cryptocurrencies, reinforcing the potential for new all-time highs. Market participants should monitor these correlations alongside on-chain metrics to gauge entry and exit points effectively.
Investors are encouraged to stay informed about ongoing market developments and consider the historical context when making strategic decisions. The current environment presents opportunities for both profit-taking and accumulation, depending on individual risk tolerance and investment horizons.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s current price consolidation amid profit-taking by long-term holders reflects a healthy market cycle where selling pressure is met with steady demand. On-chain data and technical analysis indicate that this redistribution is typical in bull markets and may precede a significant rally, potentially in July. Historical trends and correlation with traditional markets further support a bullish outlook, suggesting that investors should remain attentive to evolving market signals. Overall, the data points toward a resilient Bitcoin market poised for renewed upward momentum.
