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Bitcoin whale-to-exchange flows surged to $45 billion in mid-July, signaling increased sell pressure from large BTC holders and hinting at a potential market shift.
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Bitcoin’s Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) reached a yearly high, indicating that long-term holders are moving assets, often a precursor to price corrections.
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Altcoin-Bitcoin correlation turned negative for the third time in 2025, a pattern historically followed by sharp BTC price drops and heightened volatility, according to COINOTAG sources.
Bitcoin shows signs of potential correction as whale flows spike, Coin Days Destroyed hits yearly highs, and altcoin-BTC correlation turns negative in 2025.
After Four Months of Gains, Is Bitcoin Due for a Breather?
Bitcoin (BTC) has sustained gains for four consecutive months but recently closed its first red weekly candle in July 2025. While this does not confirm an imminent reversal, several on-chain metrics suggest caution. These early warning signs should be closely monitored as they may precede increased volatility or a market consolidation phase. Investors and traders alike should consider these indicators to better navigate the evolving market dynamics.
1. Bitcoin Whale-to-Exchange Flow Spikes
One of the most telling signals comes from the surge in Bitcoin whale-to-exchange flows. This metric tracks the volume of BTC transferred by large holders to exchanges, typically signaling potential selling activity. Between July 14 and July 18, 2025, whale inflows to exchanges reached $45 billion, a substantial increase compared to previous periods.
Bitcoin Whale to Exchange Flow – Source: CryptoQuant
Analyst Darkfost highlights that during the last two market peaks, whale inflows exceeded $75 billion, marking the onset of corrections or consolidation phases. The current $45 billion inflow is a significant figure that warrants attention. Darkfost notes, “This whale activity should be closely monitored, since whales can exert significant selling pressure, just as they did during the last two tops.”
Supporting this view, Lookonchain reported a notable transaction where a Bitcoin whale moved 400 BTC (valued at $47.1 million) to Binance to realize profits, with total gains amounting to $91.5 million. Such movements underscore the potential for increased selling pressure from large holders in the near term.
2. Bitcoin Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) Hits Yearly High
Another critical metric signaling potential market shifts is Bitcoin’s Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), which measures the age of coins moved on the blockchain. A high CDD indicates that long-term holders are moving their coins, often preceding price corrections or redistribution phases.
Bitcoin Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) – Source: CryptoQuant
In July 2025, the 30-day average CDD surpassed 31 million, the highest level since April 2024. Historical data suggests that spikes in CDD often align with market corrections, as long-term holders take profits or reposition their holdings. However, this activity can also signal a healthy redistribution of assets to newer investors, potentially laying the groundwork for future price stability.
3. Altcoin-Bitcoin Correlation Turns Negative
The correlation between altcoins and Bitcoin has recently turned negative for the third time in 2025, a development that typically signals increased market uncertainty. According to Alphractal, the Altcoin-Bitcoin Correlation Heatmap dropped below zero, indicating altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin in recent days.
Altcoin-Bitcoin Correlation Heatmap. Source: Alphractal
Historically, such negative correlation phases have preceded sharp Bitcoin price declines and heightened volatility. The first negative correlation occurred in January 2025, followed by a BTC price drop from $110,000 to $74,900. The second happened in May, coinciding with a decline from $112,000 to $98,500. The current third occurrence raises caution for market participants.
Alphractal warns, “Historically, low correlation is a red flag. It often precedes periods of high volatility and mass liquidations — whether from shorts or longs.” This dynamic suggests that traders should prepare for potential swings in Bitcoin’s price and increased market turbulence.
Additionally, a recent COINOTAG report highlighted a divergence between the Coinbase Premium and the Kimchi Premium, indicating uneven institutional demand across global markets. This decoupling suggests that the ongoing bullrun may be primarily driven by strong US institutional investors, which could impact market dynamics differently across regions.
Conclusion
While Bitcoin’s four-month rally demonstrates robust momentum, emerging on-chain indicators such as whale-to-exchange flows, Coin Days Destroyed, and altcoin-Bitcoin correlation shifts suggest a possible near-term correction or consolidation. These metrics provide valuable insights into market sentiment and investor behavior, emphasizing the importance of cautious positioning. Investors should remain vigilant and consider these signals when planning their strategies, as the crypto market continues to evolve with complex dynamics and potential volatility ahead.
