Bitcoin Spot Trading Surges on Binance, Hinting at Recovery Amid Whale Selling Pressure

• Spot volumes rose from $3-5 billion in September to $5-10 billion post-October 11 liquidations, indicating investor caution.

• Binance’s Exchange Supply Ratio hit 0.03, the lowest since mid-2022, reflecting decreased short-term supply.

• Whale activity shows mixed signals, with Exchange Whale Ratio at 0.556 monthly high, while overall spot interest grows.

Discover why Binance spot trading is surging in 2025 amid Bitcoin’s price dip to $107,716. Explore investor shifts, low ESR, and whale moves for key insights on market recovery. Stay informed on crypto trends today.

What is driving the surge in Binance spot trading volume?

Binance spot trading volume has increased significantly due to investors shifting from futures markets following a wave of liquidations on October 11, 2025. This cautious approach reflects a preference for lower-risk accumulation over leveraged positions. As Bitcoin trades at $107,716 after a 4.08% weekly decline, spot activity has stabilized at $5-10 billion daily since October 10.

How has Bitcoin’s Exchange Supply Ratio on Binance changed recently?

The Exchange Supply Ratio (ESR) on Binance for Bitcoin has fallen to 0.03, marking the lowest level since mid-2022, according to data from CryptoQuant. This decline indicates a steady reduction in short-term supply available for sale, which typically eases selling pressure on the market. Historically, such low ESR levels have coincided with shifts toward accumulation by large holders, often during late stages of market cycles where long-term investors increase their positions. For instance, similar patterns in previous cycles preceded price recoveries, as holders moved away from immediate selling. This trend suggests that the current drop in ESR could support a more stable environment for Bitcoin, although other factors like whale activity must be considered.

After heavy liquidations, investors grew cautious—spot trading volumes surged to $5–10B daily.

Source: CryptoQuant

Previously, especially in September, volume ranged between $3 billion and $5 billion. Such a massive surge indicates renewed interest in spot trading, reflecting investors’ cautious approach. On top of that, Bitcoin’s Supply Ratio on Binance has declined to 0.03, hitting the lowest levels since mid-2022. Such a decline suggests that the short-term supply available for sale is steadily decreasing, a recipe for reduced selling pressure.

Source: CryptoQuant

Historically, a decline in ESR has indicated a shift in large holders’ market behavior, as they turn to accumulation. Often, this pattern aligns with the late accumulation phases of market cycles, with long-term investors raising their holdings. Therefore, investors returning to the spot market could lay the ground for another and more sustainable bullish recovery. Historically, previous market cycles have indicated that a period of spot accumulation precedes price recovery.

Frequently Asked Questions

What caused the recent shift from Binance futures to spot trading in 2025?

A cascade of forced liquidations on October 11, 2025, prompted investors to adopt a more conservative stance, moving toward spot trading for direct ownership without leverage. This shift, as reported by Darkfost, has led to daily spot volumes stabilizing at $5-10 billion, up from September’s $3-5 billion range, highlighting reduced risk appetite in volatile conditions.

Is the drop in Bitcoin’s Exchange Supply Ratio a bullish signal for price recovery?

Yes, the ESR dropping to 0.03 on Binance, the lowest since mid-2022, points to lower short-term selling pressure and increased holder accumulation. Data from CryptoQuant shows this often precedes recoveries in past cycles, as long-term investors build positions, though sustained demand is needed to confirm upward momentum.

Key Takeaways

• Investor Caution Drives Spot Surge: Following October 11 liquidations, Binance spot volumes reached $5-10 billion daily, signaling a shift from high-risk futures trading to accumulation strategies.
• Low ESR Indicates Reduced Supply: At 0.03, Bitcoin’s Exchange Supply Ratio on Binance reflects decreased short-term availability, historically aligning with holder accumulation phases before price upturns.
• Whale Activity Adds Uncertainty: Elevated Exchange Whale Ratio at 0.556 and shark deposits of 117k BTC suggest potential selling pressure, which could lead to consolidation unless spot demand absorbs it.

But what’s holding BTC behind? Interestingly, while investors have returned to the spot to accumulate, resulting in lower ESR, whales and sharks remain indifferent. Inasmuch as so, the Exchange Whale Ratio has surged to a monthly high of 0.556, suggesting that large holders are actively depositing Bitcoin to exchanges.

Source: CryptoQuant

This selling spree is particularly led by those holding 100 to 1k BTC (sharks), whose Exchange Balance Change remained elevated around 117k BTC.

Source: Checkonchain

Additionally, the Bitcoin Fund Flow Ratio has spiked to 0.11, further validating our early observation on increased exchange participation.

Source: CryptoQuant

Historically, higher flow into exchanges, especially from large entities, has preceded poor price performance. This is because exchange deposits cause downward pressure if demand fails to keep pace and absorb them.

A break or breakout?

Bitcoin is experiencing a fierce battle between bulls and bears for market control. While investors on Binance have returned to accumulate, spending elsewhere, especially from whales, remains elevated. These two conflicting forces leave the market at a crossroads and signal a potential prolonged consolidation. Therefore, if these conditions persist, we could see BTC trade within a thin margin between $106,071 and $114,039. Conversely, if the demand picking up on Binance holds up and absorbs the arising sell pressure, BTC could breach these levels and target $116k.

Conclusion

In summary, the Binance spot trading volume surge and declining Bitcoin Exchange Supply Ratio highlight a cautious yet accumulation-focused shift among investors in 2025, despite whale-driven pressures. As spot activity stabilizes and ESR remains low, the market shows signs of building toward recovery. Monitor these metrics closely, as they could signal the next phase in Bitcoin’s trajectory—consider positioning accordingly for potential upside.