Bitcoin Stabilizes as U.S. Government Shutdown Delays CPI, While Fed Signals Rate Cuts May Still Be on Track

• Markets have stabilized amid delayed U.S. data, shifting the narrative from rate sensitivity to liquidity-driven flows.

• Bitcoin hovered near $112,127 and Ethereum around $4,094 as traders await rescheduled CPI figures.

• Gold topped $4,200 per ounce; September CPI was last reported at 2.9%, and the CME FedWatch Tool shows high odds of near-term rate cuts.

U.S. government shutdown crypto markets: Bitcoin and Ethereum stabilize as CPI delays shift focus to liquidity and Fed rate-cut odds—watch prices, CPI timing, and Fed guidance.

By COINOTAG — Published Oct 15, 2025 · Updated Oct 15, 2025

How does the U.S. government shutdown affect crypto markets?

The U.S. government shutdown affects crypto markets by postponing key economic indicators—most notably the Consumer Price Index—reducing immediate, data-driven trading activity and increasing emphasis on liquidity and safe-haven assets. With fewer official datapoints, traders are weighing privately produced labor metrics and central bank guidance when pricing Bitcoin and Ethereum.

What is the outlook for asset flows while CPI data is delayed?

With the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) delaying the September CPI release to Oct. 24, investors have shifted toward liquidity-sensitive assets. QCP Capital Business Manager Hui Wen Thoo noted market forces now include central bank buying, de-dollarization flows, and institutional hedging, which have supported gold and influenced crypto positioning. Bitcoin is trading about 12% below its all-time high above $126,000, while Ethereum sits roughly 18% shy of its record; these dynamics suggest investors are using BTC and ETH as part of broader portfolio hedges rather than speculative bets alone.

Frequently Asked Questions

How will a delayed CPI report change Fed decision-making before the next FOMC meeting?

The delayed CPI compresses the official data available to the Federal Open Markets Committee, making privately produced labor-market measures and market-based indicators more influential. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has indicated privately sourced jobs metrics show cooling, supporting the Fed’s plan for rate reductions despite the temporary data gap.

Will Bitcoin react immediately when the CPI is released?

Short answer: likely yes. Crypto markets often react quickly to inflation surprises. If the rescheduled CPI diverges from market expectations, expect increased intraday volatility in BTC and ETH as traders recalibrate rate-cut probabilities and portfolio hedges.

Key Takeaways

• Data delays matter: The government shutdown pushed the September CPI release to Oct. 24, reducing near-term official inputs for policy decisions.
• Liquidity over rates: Market narratives are shifting from rate sensitivity to liquidity-driven flows, supporting gold and stabilizing major cryptocurrencies.
• Watch Fed signals: Chair Jerome Powell’s comments and the CME FedWatch Tool probabilities remain central to pricing the timing and magnitude of expected rate cuts.

Conclusion

The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has temporarily altered the information set available to markets, delaying the September Consumer Price Index and prompting a shift toward liquidity-driven assets. Bitcoin and Ethereum have stabilized while gold rallies, as investors lean on private labor indicators and central bank guidance to assess policy direction. Market participants should monitor the rescheduled CPI release on Oct. 24, official Fed communications, and updates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the CME FedWatch Tool to gauge the likely path of rate cuts and subsequent market reactions. For ongoing coverage and market updates, follow COINOTAG’s reporting.