Bitcoin Supply in Loss Falls Below 2% as Profitability Peaks at 98%, Potential Price Movements Ahead

Bitcoin continues to demonstrate resilience, as its supply in loss declines below 2%, signaling a significant shift towards profitability among holders.

• Bitcoin’s Supply in Loss has fallen below 2%, pushing the percentage of profitable holders to a cycle high of 98%.

• BTC could revisit $96K if profit-taking escalates and overheated conditions intensify.

Over the past month, Bitcoin [BTC] experienced a massive upswing on its price chart, rising from $76k to a local high of $104k.

According to CryptoQuant, 98% of BTC holders now sit on gains. Naturally, this pushed Supply in Loss to just under 2%—a historical low.

Source: CryptoQuant

The Implications of Widespread Profitability on Market Sentiment

Historically, such conditions align with early market euphoria, where the vast majority of holders are enjoying profits. As COINOTAG points out, Bitcoin’s NUPL has increased consecutively over the past week, reaching a value of 0.56. This indicates that while holders feel confident, some caution remains as they anticipate further price increases.

Source: CryptoQuant

Market Dynamics: Recognizing Potential Overconfidence

The current optimism surrounding Bitcoin can change rapidly. When BTC Supply in Loss drops to between 0–2%, it typically accompanies late-stage bull runs. This stage often leads to overconfidence among holders as they become more comfortable with their positions. Historical data shows that when NUPL reaches 0.75, a significant phase in market psychology begins.

The risk of distribution rises notably at this stage. Long-term holders may see this as an opportunity to mitigate their risks, while newer investors might chase the gains, resulting in a disparity in market sentiment.

Source: CryptoQuant

Recent data shows that holders are starting to distribute their assets as profit realization among traders increases. Notably, exchange netflows have turned positive, with 756 BTC moving onto exchanges in the last 48 hours. This shift signifies more deposits than withdrawals, a trend that often aligns with rising selling pressure. Historical cycles indicate that positive netflows tend to materialize before local tops.

Historical Patterns and Future Projections

With this familiar pattern reemerging, it raises the question of whether Bitcoin will follow its historical trajectory and reach another cycle’s peak. Currently, the remarkably low percentage of supply in loss signifies a mature market phase. Positive exchange flows hint at potential distribution, indicating the market might soon encounter an overheated state.

If historical trends hold, Bitcoin could face a corrective phase, potentially slipping below $100k towards $96k. However, if the price maintains momentum, BTC could target a resistance level of $106K, which has previously posed challenges, before attempting to breach the $109k mark seen in January 2025.

Conclusion

As Bitcoin’s market landscape evolves, understanding the implications of the current profitability levels is crucial. The mix of nostalgia and caution is palpable as investors weigh their options. With significant price levels ahead, the onus will be on discerning both market signals and behavioral psychology among investors.