Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average (200 WMA) has been breached in past bear markets — notably in 2018 and on Black Thursday 2020 — and those breaches marked long-term market bottoms; the 200 WMA now sits near $52,000 and is widely treated as a long-term support indicator.
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200 WMA breaches have historically signaled long-term market bottoms.
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Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average is used to smooth multi-year price action and identify cycle extremes.
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Current 200 WMA ≈ $52,000; BTC recently moved above $111,000 intraday, while still ~11% below its Aug. 14 record high.
Bitcoin 200 WMA explained: Has BTC fallen below the 200-week moving average before? Read concise history and trading context — learn what it means for long-term investors.
Has Bitcoin ever dropped below 200 WMA?
Yes — Bitcoin has fallen below the 200-week moving average during major drawdowns. The 200 WMA is a long-term trend filter; breaches occurred during the 2018 crypto winter and on Black Thursday in 2020. Those breaches corresponded with prolonged market bottoms and subsequent multi-year recoveries.
How do traders use the 200-week moving average?
Traders and long-term investors view the 200 WMA as a structural support level that smooths years of price data. When BTC trades near or below the 200 WMA, many allocate defensively or add positions for long-term holding. When the price is significantly above the 200 WMA, risk management becomes a priority.
Bitcoin bucking risk-on trend — why is BTC diverging from equities?
Bitcoin is currently trading in the green after reportedly breaching the $111,000 level earlier today, diverging from U.S. equities, where the Nasdaq 100 trades lower amid tariff concerns and rising bond yields. BTC’s divergence highlights crypto’s growing, though imperfect, decoupling from traditional risk assets.
Despite the intraday strength, Bitcoin remains underperforming gold, which continues to set fresh highs. BTC is still about 11% below its record high set on Aug. 14, indicating the market retains some distribution-phase characteristics.
When did the 200 WMA act as support or get breached?
Historical examples: the 2018 crypto winter and Black Thursday 2020 both saw BTC fall below the 200 WMA. Each breach aligned with long-term capitulation and marked multi-month to multi-year lows. After those lows, BTC entered extended recoveries and new bull cycles.
Frequently Asked Questions
How often has Bitcoin breached the 200-week moving average?
Bitcoin has breached the 200 WMA on several notable occasions, including the 2018 crypto winter and March 2020 (Black Thursday). Each breach corresponded with deep market corrections and set conditions for long-term recovery.
Is the 200 WMA an absolute bottom for Bitcoin?
No. While the 200 WMA is a historically strong long-term support, it is not absolute. Breaches have occurred and marked major lows; investors should combine the 200 WMA with on-chain metrics and macro context for decision-making.
Key Takeaways
- Historical breaches matter: Past 200 WMA breaches (2018, 2020) signaled long-term bottoms and preceded recoveries.
- 200 WMA ≈ structural filter: Traders use it to smooth multi-year price action and identify cycle extremes.
- Combine indicators: Use on-chain data, macro indicators, and position sizing alongside the 200 WMA for risk management.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average has been breached in prior bear markets, most notably in 2018 and during Black Thursday 2020, and those breaches marked long-term bottoms. The 200 WMA—currently near $52,000—remains a key structural indicator for traders and long-term investors. Monitor on-chain signals and macro factors for confirmation and disciplined position management.
