Bitcoin’s Bullish Momentum Faces Potential Challenges Amid Overheated Metrics and Rising Network Valuation

Bitcoin’s bullish momentum builds, but overheated metrics may challenge further upside.

• Exchange outflows and low MVRV indicate continued bullish accumulation pressure.

• Despite rising Open Interest, extreme NVT warns of possible short-term overvaluation.

Bitcoin [BTC] has continued to exhibit strong accumulation behavior, with over 3,090 BTC—worth approximately $325 million—withdrawn from Binance in a single day. This adds to a series of large exchange outflows observed across major platforms. The MVRV ratio, a critical metric for identifying market tops, currently sits at 2.33—below the 2.75 threshold historically associated with aggressive profit-taking.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin traded at $105,163.46, up 1.89% in the past 24 hours. The subdued MVRV reading indicated that BTC remained in a neutral-to-undervalued zone, offering more room for upward continuation.

Are derivatives traders preparing for a breakout?

Open Interest has surged 8.32% to $34.87 billion, pointing to rising activity in the derivatives market. This increase typically suggests that traders are opening new positions, possibly in anticipation of heightened volatility near resistance. The steady price rise, coupled with growing leveraged interest, shows a willingness to speculate on bullish continuation. However, elevated Open Interest may also indicate higher liquidation risk if price reverses.

Source: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin’s NVT ratio has skyrocketed to 485.13—a level rarely seen in previous market cycles. This ratio, which compares market cap to transaction volume, often signals potential overvaluation when it climbs excessively. While the price has been trending upward, network usage hasn’t matched pace, suggesting speculative flows could be dominating.

Are long-term hands steering this rally?

The Miners’ Position Index (MPI) has surged by 76.12%, yet the press time value of 0.17 remained low compared to historical thresholds. This indicated that even with increased outflows, miners were not exerting meaningful sell pressure. During periods of high MPI, miners typically offload large amounts of BTC, contributing to corrections. However, the present value suggests restrained behavior from this cohort.

Source: CryptoQuant

Supply-adjusted Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) rose by 7.22%, indicating a modest increase in coin movement among long-term holders. However, current values still reflect limited distribution from aged wallets. Historically, when long-term holders begin to sell in large volumes, CDD spikes aggressively. Therefore, the mild increase shows that conviction remains strong among veteran investors.

The 0–1 day Realized Cap HODL Wave stood at 0.274, reinforcing the view that short-term speculative activity remained subdued. This metric tracked the proportion of realized cap held by recent entrants. Low values typically indicate that the rally is not being driven by rapid buy-ins or pump-and-dump behaviors.

Source: Santiment

Cup and handle pattern nears breakout above $107K

Bitcoin’s daily chart revealed a well-formed cup and handle pattern, with the neckline resting near $107,000. This classic bullish structure suggested the potential for continuation if a breakout occurs. At the time of writing, BTC traded at $105,163.46, hovering just below the neckline.

Volume has remained steady during the consolidation phase, and RSI has not entered overbought territory, which further supported a bullish setup. A successful breakout could send BTC to new highs, while rejection might trigger a minor pullback toward the $100K support. The breakout zone remains a critical area to monitor.

Source: TradingView

Can BTC sustain its momentum despite overheated metrics?

Bitcoin’s rally remains well-supported by strong on-chain and technical signals. Exchange outflows, low MVRV, restrained miner selling, and weak short-term speculation indicate bullish conditions. However, the NVT spike above 485 highlights a possible imbalance between valuation and network activity.

As BTC flirts with a key resistance level, the market’s next move hinges on whether buyers can sustain momentum or whether overvaluation concerns will prompt a pullback. For now, accumulation trends dominate the narrative—tilting the bias in favor of continued upside.