Bitcoin’s recent drop below its 365-day moving average signals potential bearish pressure, but analysts suggest it could be a temporary pullback rather than the start of a prolonged downturn. This key indicator, currently around $102,000, has historically marked shifts in market sentiment, with quick recoveries possible in bull cycles.
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Bitcoin dipped below $99,000 on Tuesday, breaching the 365-day moving average for the second time in 2025.
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This technical breakdown reignites debates on whether it’s a bear market entry or routine correction in an ongoing bull run.
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Historical data shows 40% rebounds within 60 days after similar 20% drawdowns, supporting optimism for recovery.
Bitcoin below 365-day moving average sparks bear market fears, but experts see it as a temporary dip. Explore analysis, historical trends, and recovery potential in this 2025 update. Stay informed on BTC trends today.
What Happens When Bitcoin Falls Below Its 365-Day Moving Average?
Bitcoin’s 365-day moving average serves as a critical long-term trend indicator, averaging the cryptocurrency’s price over the past year to reveal broader market direction. When Bitcoin’s price slips below this level, as it did on Tuesday reaching lows around $98,900, it often triggers bearish sentiment among traders and analysts. However, historical patterns indicate this may not always herald a full bear market; instead, it could represent a short-term correction, with prices potentially rebounding swiftly if supportive factors like macroeconomic stability align.
According to data from Coinbase, Bitcoin briefly traded below $99,000 before recovering to approximately $101,800. This event marks the second such breach in 2025, following a similar dip in April. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, highlighted the significance, noting in a post on X that crossing back above the average quickly is essential to avoid confirming a bearish shift reminiscent of 2022.
Is the Drop Below the 365-Day Moving Average a Bear Market Signal?
The 365-day moving average, currently hovering at about $102,000 as of November 4, 2025, at 9:00 AM UTC, is prized by market observers for its reliability in assessing Bitcoin’s overall health. A sustained position below this threshold has, in past cycles, correlated with extended downturns, but context matters. For instance, Bitcoin’s price has fallen more than 20% from its all-time high above $126,000 in early October, officially entering technical correction territory.
Bitrue research analyst Andri Fauzan Adziima described this as the fourth correction in the 2025 bull cycle, emphasizing it’s a “routine cleanse” rather than the prelude to a harsh winter. Drawing from historical data, Adziima pointed out that bull markets typically see 40% recoveries within 60 days following 20% drawdowns, providing a data-backed rationale for measured optimism. Crypto analyst Decode’s shared metrics further illustrate that Bitcoin briefly undercut the average in April without derailing the upward trajectory.
Bitcoin’s 365-day moving average was at around $102,000 as of Nov. 4, 9:00 am UTC. Source: Decode
Tom Cohen, head of investments and trading at Algoz Technology, echoed this view, stating that a true bear market would require a decisive break below $100,000. As long as that level holds, Cohen believes a seasonal rally—often dubbed the “Santa Claus rally”—remains feasible, influenced by upcoming macroeconomic events such as the U.S. Federal Reserve’s December rate decision and policy developments under President Trump.
This perspective aligns with broader quantitative analysis from platforms like CryptoQuant, which track on-chain metrics showing sustained holder accumulation despite price volatility. Such indicators suggest underlying strength, even as short-term sentiment wavers. Experts from Kobeissi Letter have also noted in their analyses that volatility is inherent to Bitcoin’s maturation, with corrections serving to shake out weak positions and pave the way for higher highs.
Source: KobeissiLetter
Related: A $19 billion crypto market crash has created opportunities for Bitcoin to reach $200,000 in 2025, according to Finance Redefined insights.
Magazine: Bitcoin could face a 70% drop before hitting $1 million, alongside discussions on MEXC’s ‘white whale’ apology in Hodler’s Digest from October 26 to November 1.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why Did Bitcoin Drop Below Its 365-Day Moving Average in November 2025?
Bitcoin’s dip below the 365-day moving average in November 2025 stemmed from broader market pressures, including profit-taking after the October all-time high and anticipation of U.S. economic data releases. According to CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno, this breach acts as a confirmation signal, but on-chain data from Coinbase shows institutional buying interest persists, mitigating deeper declines to around $98,900 before partial recovery.
What Should Investors Do If Bitcoin Stays Below the 365-Day Moving Average?
If Bitcoin remains below its 365-day moving average, investors should monitor key support at $100,000 while diversifying holdings and watching for Federal Reserve signals. Analysts like Tom Cohen from Algoz Technology advise patience, as historical bull cycle patterns often feature quick rebounds. This natural-sounding guidance emphasizes long-term holding over reactive selling during temporary volatility.
Key Takeaways
- Technical Bear Signal: Breaching the 365-day moving average indicates short-term bearish momentum, but it’s the second such event in 2025 without ending the bull run.
- Historical Rebounds: Data from past cycles shows 40% price recoveries within 60 days after 20% corrections, as noted by Bitrue’s Andri Fauzan Adziima.
- Macro Influences: Upcoming U.S. rate decisions and policy shifts could drive a rally, with $100,000 as the critical threshold per Algoz Technology’s Tom Cohen.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s fall below the 365-day moving average has undoubtedly heightened concerns about potential bear market risks, yet expert analysis from sources like CryptoQuant and Bitrue underscores its role as a likely routine correction in the 2025 bull cycle. With the price stabilizing around $101,800 and historical precedents favoring recovery, investors are positioned to navigate this volatility toward sustained growth. As macroeconomic factors evolve, staying attuned to these Bitcoin bear market signals will be key—consider reviewing your portfolio strategies now for the opportunities ahead.
