• Fourth consecutive weekly loss: Bitcoin has declined for four straight weeks, the longest streak since June 2024, erasing recent gains.

• On-chain metrics show resilience, with spot bid-ask delta spiking to the second-highest level in 2025, signaling increased buying interest.

• Federal Reserve rate cut odds rise to 70%, but sticky inflation fears could prolong the downturn, per options analytics from Derive.

Bitcoin’s longest weekly slump in 2025 signals a tough quarter ahead, but on-chain data hints at recovery. Explore key factors and expert insights for informed crypto strategies now.

What is causing Bitcoin’s longest weekly slump in 2025?

Bitcoin’s longest weekly slump in 2025 arises from persistent market pressures, including reduced accumulation by digital asset treasuries trading below net asset value and declines in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. This has led to four consecutive weekly losses, the longest since June 2024, with the asset on pace for a 24.43% quarterly drop—its worst since 2018. Despite a partial recovery, underlying demand indicators suggest potential stabilization if macroeconomic conditions improve.

How are Federal Reserve policies influencing the Bitcoin slump?

The Federal Reserve’s anticipated policy decisions are playing a central role in the current Bitcoin environment. Odds of a December rate cut have surged from 40% to nearly 70%, prompting a 6% price rebound from the November 21 low of $82,100 to $87,400, based on data from CoinGecko. However, Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive, cautions that fears of sticky inflation may delay a full transition to quantitative easing, maintaining trader apprehension. Quantitative tightening ends on December 1, with the interest rate decision on December 10 potentially dictating short-term momentum. Dawson notes, “Pessimism has peaked, but I’d be cautious of walking into a bull trap,” highlighting how most digital asset treasuries remain undervalued, limiting buying power. Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have also posted losses, exacerbating the downward trend. This interplay of policy expectations and market dynamics underscores the volatility, with traders closely monitoring for shifts that could alleviate selling pressure.

Frequently Asked Questions

What on-chain metrics indicate potential recovery from Bitcoin’s 2025 slump?

The aggregate spot bid-ask delta at 10% depth has reached the second-highest level in 2025, reflecting heightened dip-buying and absorption of sell orders. This metric previously signaled a bottom after a downtrend in March and April, leading to a 64% rally, offering factual evidence of underlying demand amid the slump.

Will Bitcoin recover to $100,000 by early 2026 despite the current weekly losses?

Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by the first quarter of 2026, according to analysis from Derive, though the remainder of 2025 may see continued bearish conditions. Options market data shows a negative skew with increased put options in the $80,000 to $85,000 range for December 2025, suggesting traders are hedging against further dips to the mid-$70,000s before a possible year-end stabilization near $90,000.

Key Takeaways

• Extended downtrend: Bitcoin’s four-week losing streak marks its longest slump since June 2024, driven by treasury undervaluation and ETF outflows.
• Policy pivot potential: Rising rate cut probabilities to 70% align with a 1.8% daily gain, but inflation concerns temper optimism.
• Demand signals: Elevated bid-ask delta points to buying support, potentially averting deeper losses if Fed actions prove dovish.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s longest weekly slump in 2025, coupled with Federal Reserve policy uncertainties, has set the stage for a challenging quarter reminiscent of 2018 levels. Yet, robust on-chain metrics and shifting rate cut expectations provide glimmers of resilience, as noted by experts at Derive. As the December 10 decision approaches, investors should monitor sentiment indicators in extreme fear territory for signs of reversal. Staying informed on these developments positions market participants to navigate volatility and capitalize on emerging opportunities in the digital asset space.