Bitcoin’s ‘Major Top’ Call May Be Premature Amid Stable Market Indicators and Ongoing Uptrend

• Peter Schiff’s recent claim that Bitcoin (BTC) has reached a ‘major top’ appears premature amid mixed market signals and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

• Despite a sharp BTC dip following Israel’s attack on Iran, key market indicators and BTC’s relative strength against gold suggest the cryptocurrency remains in a bullish multi-year trend.

• According to COINOTAG sources, none of the 30 critical bull market peak indicators flagged an overheated market, reinforcing a strong ‘HOLD’ stance for BTC investors.

Bitcoin’s recent dip amid geopolitical risks contrasts with stable market indicators, suggesting Schiff’s ‘major top’ call may be premature in June 2025.

Analyzing Bitcoin’s Position Relative to Gold Amid Market Volatility

Bitcoin’s price action in June 2025 was notably impacted by geopolitical developments, specifically Israel’s military action against Iran, which triggered a risk-off sentiment across global markets. BTC briefly fell to $102,000, extending weekly losses to 7%, mirroring declines in the U.S. stock market. Meanwhile, gold surged to $3,400 per ounce, traditionally viewed as a safe haven during times of uncertainty. This divergence prompted Peter Schiff, a well-known BTC critic, to assert that Bitcoin had formed a ‘major top,’ emphasizing that BTC priced in gold was over 15% below its November 2021 peak.

However, a closer examination of the BTC/gold ratio reveals a more nuanced picture. While Bitcoin has underperformed gold since early 2025, the ratio remains within a long-term ascending channel, indicating an ongoing uptrend. The ratio peaked at 37 in 2021, with a brief, unsustainable breakout to 40 in January 2025, followed by a 36% correction to 26. This suggests that although gold outperformed BTC in Q1 2025, the broader trend still favors Bitcoin’s relative strength. A sustained break below this channel would be necessary to validate Schiff’s ‘major top’ thesis.

Source: BTC/gold ratio, TradingView

Market Cycle Indicators and Bull Market Signals Support Bitcoin’s Resilience

Beyond the BTC/gold ratio, a comprehensive analysis of market cycle peak indicators provides further insight into Bitcoin’s current state. CoinGlass’ Bull Market Peak Indicators aggregate 30 metrics, including ETF flows, on-chain valuation models such as the MVRV Z-Score, and investor sentiment. As of June 2025, none of these indicators signaled an overheated market or imminent peak, suggesting that Bitcoin’s price levels remain fundamentally supported despite recent volatility.

Source: CoinGlass 

Investor sentiment also remains cautiously optimistic. Ken Teng, known as Chicken Genius on X, highlighted the likelihood of increased U.S. monetary stimulus aimed at addressing national debt challenges. This potential influx of liquidity is widely expected to bolster Bitcoin’s price, reinforcing the narrative that “nothing stops this train” within crypto circles.

Supporting this outlook, Glassnode’s on-chain data indicates that Bitcoin’s recent price pullback did not breach critical short-term support levels, including the short-term holder (STH) realized price at approximately $97,000. This suggests that most short-term holders remain profitable, limiting downside risk and reducing the probability of a significant market top in the near term.

Source: Glassnode

Geopolitical Risks and Their Impact on Crypto Market Dynamics

The recent geopolitical escalation in the Middle East has undeniably injected volatility into global financial markets, including cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin’s role as a digital store of value is being tested amid these tensions, with investors balancing risk-off moves against the asset’s long-term potential. While gold’s rally underscores its traditional safe-haven status, Bitcoin’s resilience in maintaining key support levels highlights its evolving role in diversified portfolios.

Market participants should monitor ongoing geopolitical developments closely, as sustained instability could influence liquidity flows and investor risk appetite. However, current data suggests that Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain intact, and the asset continues to attract interest from both retail and institutional investors.

Conclusion

In summary, while Peter Schiff’s assertion of a ‘major top’ in Bitcoin reflects a valid observation of BTC’s relative underperformance against gold, the broader market context and technical indicators do not yet confirm a definitive peak. The BTC/gold ratio remains in an upward channel, and comprehensive market cycle metrics show no signs of overheating. Additionally, supportive on-chain data and potential monetary policy actions in the U.S. suggest that Bitcoin’s bullish trajectory may persist. Investors are advised to maintain a measured approach, focusing on key support levels and evolving geopolitical risks as they navigate the crypto market landscape.