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Bitcoin has decisively broken the $97,000 barrier, sparking fresh discussions around its potential future trajectories: bullish, bearish, or stagnant.
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This distinct shift in momentum presents a pivotal moment for Bitcoin investors, underlining the importance of market sentiment.
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According to notable crypto analyst Axel Adler, the analysis reveals critical patterns that could shape Bitcoin’s immediate price action.
Explore the implications of Bitcoin’s recent $97K breakout and discover three potential paths for its market trajectory in our latest analysis.
Three Scenarios That Could Shape Bitcoin’s Next Rally
Building on Bitcoin’s momentum ratio, renowned crypto analyst Axel Adler highlighted three key scenarios for BTC’s next move after breaking the critical $97k overhead supply barrier. This analytical framework is crucial for investors seeking to navigate the volatile landscape of cryptocurrency.
At press time, BTC’s on-chain momentum sits in the “start” rally zone, with the momentum ratio at approximately 0.8 (80%). This indicates an optimistic positioning, however, the market’s direction will hinge on the ratio’s behavior in the coming weeks.
Source: CryptoQuant
If the momentum ratio breaks above 1.0 and maintains that level, key metrics like NUPL and MVRV would signal a fresh upward impulse, potentially propelling Bitcoin’s price into the $150k–$175k range. Conversely, if the momentum ratio drops to 0.75 or lower, short-term holders (STHs) may start liquidating their positions, leading to a possible correction to the $70k–$85k range.
In the third scenario, if the ratio stabilizes within the 0.8-1.0 band, BTC is likely to trade within a broad range of $90k to $110k. This could lead to an environment where market participants maintain their holdings, but without significant new investment.
BTC’s Most Likely Next Move
In a bullish outlook, if Bitcoin’s momentum ratio escalates beyond 1.0 and sustains this level, we could anticipate a rally towards the $150k–$175k range, mirroring previous macro cycles. Historically, in 2017, Bitcoin surged nearly 20x; similarly, in 2021, it tripled after surpassing earlier highs — cycles that were significantly influenced by indicators like NUPL and MVRV reaching euphoric territories.
Currently, MVRV sits at 2.16, which is below the critical 3.9 level typically observed at market peaks. This suggests that the present market is not yet in a state of overexcitement, providing ample room for growth.
Source: Glassnode
Moreover, the NUPL metric currently hovering at 0.54 suggests early-stage optimism among holders. If NUPL climbs towards the 0.74 level, it would align with trends observed during previous bull markets, indicating that there’s still significant upside potential.
Source: Glassnode
However, if sustained buying pressure fails to materialize, a base-case scenario centered around consolidation in the $90k–$110k range becomes increasingly probable, particularly with resistance-driven corrections in play.
Considering a recent correction has already occurred, the bullish and consolidation scenarios appear more favorable than a deeper pullback. Continuous monitoring of these indicators will be vital, as they are instrumental in predicting Bitcoin’s next trajectory.
Conclusion
In summary, Bitcoin’s breakout above the $97K threshold has opened the door for multiple potential paths, each guided by market momentum and key indicators. Investors should remain vigilant and adapt their strategies accordingly, as the unfolding financial landscape promises to be both challenging and rewarding. Stay updated, and position yourself wisely to navigate the coming movements in this dynamic cryptocurrency market.
