Bitcoin’s Pullback Forms Potential Bullish Setup, Retesting Key Support Zone

• Bitcoin’s recent pullback from $120,000 to $104,000 retests higher-time-frame demand zones, forming a potential launching pad for upward momentum.

• The weekly chart indicates compression above $100,000, signaling building pressure for a breakout.

• Daily analysis reveals a higher low around $102,000-$104,000, with historical data showing 70% of similar retests leading to at least 15% gains within two weeks.

Discover Bitcoin’s paradoxical bullish setup amid 2025 volatility. Retesting support at $104,000 could propel BTC to $130,000—explore the technicals and stay ahead in crypto investing today.

What is the Current Bitcoin Bullish Setup?

Bitcoin’s bullish setup currently revolves around a strategic retest of established support levels following a sharp correction from its recent highs. After reaching $120,000, BTC has dipped to around $104,000, a zone that previously acted as resistance but now serves as a critical demand area from the cycle’s breakout phase. This setup, as analyzed by seasoned trader DonAlt—who accurately forecasted the March 2023 market bottom and XRP’s 700% surge in 2024—presents a counterintuitive opportunity, where surface-level weakness masks underlying strength in the chart structure.

DonAlt’s assessment, shared publicly, emphasizes that while the price action lacks excitement, it aligns with the most viable bullish scenario available. Across multiple time frames, Bitcoin demonstrates resilience: the monthly chart reflects a precise touch of prior resistance turned support, avoiding deeper declines. This retest avoids the pitfalls of overextended rallies, potentially cleansing excess leverage and attracting fresh institutional inflows. In essence, holding above $104,000 could validate this setup, paving the way for renewed upward momentum without the distortions seen in other assets burdened by complex fundamentals.

How Does Bitcoin’s Weekly Chart Support This Bullish View?

The weekly chart for Bitcoin underscores the bullish potential by showing sustained compression just above the $100,000 psychological barrier, a level that has held firm since early 2025. According to on-chain metrics from sources like Glassnode, trading volume in this range has increased by 25% over the past month, indicating accumulation by long-term holders rather than distribution. This pattern echoes historical cycles, where similar compressions preceded 40-50% rallies, as seen in late 2024.

Expert analysts, including those from Bloomberg Intelligence, note that Bitcoin’s hash rate remains near all-time highs at over 650 EH/s, reinforcing network security and miner confidence in higher prices. DonAlt points out that the weekly structure avoids lower lows, with candlestick wicks testing but not breaching key moving averages like the 50-week EMA at $98,500. Short sentences highlight the clarity: support intact, volume rising, momentum indicators like RSI neutral at 55. If this compression resolves upward, targets align with Fibonacci extensions at $130,000, supported by ETF inflows totaling $15 billion year-to-date per public filings from BlackRock and Fidelity.

Furthermore, macroeconomic factors play a subtle role. With U.S. inflation cooling to 2.5% as reported by the Federal Reserve, risk assets like Bitcoin benefit from loose monetary policy expectations. DonAlt’s layered analysis avoids hype, focusing on liquidity zones: above $104,000 lies thin order books, ripe for quick spikes, while below targets untouched pools at $82,000-$89,000. This data-driven approach demonstrates Bitcoin’s edge in technical purity, free from earnings volatility plaguing traditional markets.

Frequently Asked Questions

What Happens if Bitcoin Breaks Below $104,000 Support?

If Bitcoin fails to hold $104,000, it could trigger a deeper correction toward $82,000-$89,000, the last major liquidity zone untouched since early 2024. Historical precedents, such as the 2022 bear market, show that 20-30% drawdowns from peaks often precede cycle bottoms, but current on-chain data from Santiment indicates low capitulation signals, suggesting any drop would be short-lived before rebounding on institutional buying.

Is This Bitcoin Bullish Setup Sustainable in 2025?

Yes, this Bitcoin bullish setup appears sustainable given the alignment of technicals with on-chain fundamentals. With over 1.2 million BTC held in ETFs as per Grayscale reports, and halving effects still unfolding from 2024, upward pressure builds naturally. Voice search queries often highlight Bitcoin’s scarcity model, which, when explained, sounds reassuring: limited supply meets growing demand, propelling prices steadily through 2025.

Key Takeaways

• Retest Strength: Bitcoin’s dip to $104,000 resets the bullish structure, confirming demand from prior highs and setting up for $130,000 targets.
• Multi-Time Frame Alignment: Monthly support, weekly compression, and daily higher lows collectively bolster the case, backed by 25% volume spikes.
• Risk Management Essential: Monitor $100,000 closely; a break lower eyes $82,000, but holding invites fresh inflows—position accordingly for the cycle’s next leg.

Straightforward Scenario

In the context of Bitcoin’s ongoing cycle, this retest simplifies decision-making for investors. Holding the $104,000 zone positions BTC as a prime candidate for a surge to $130,000, leveraging clean technicals amid ETF-driven stability. DonAlt’s outlook reminds us that Bitcoin thrives on levels and liquidity, not noise—despite macro uncertainties, the chart’s bull case endures. Looking ahead, as adoption grows with projections of 500 million users by 2026 from Chainalysis, this setup could mark a pivotal reset, encouraging strategic accumulation for long-term gains. Stay informed on evolving patterns to navigate 2025’s opportunities effectively.

Expanding on the technical landscape, Bitcoin’s price dynamics in 2025 reflect a maturing market. The paradoxical bullish setup DonAlt describes isn’t isolated; it’s part of a broader trend where corrections refine the uptrend. For instance, the 2021 bull run saw multiple retests of the $30,000-$40,000 range before parabolic moves, a pattern mirrored here with adjusted levels. On-chain analytics from CryptoQuant reveal that exchange reserves have dropped 15% since January 2025, signaling reduced selling pressure and holder conviction.

Institutional involvement adds layers of support. Reports from JPMorgan estimate that Bitcoin ETFs could absorb $50 billion more in assets this year, countering any retail fear. DonAlt’s prediction history lends credibility: his March 2023 call preceded a 150% BTC rebound, and the XRP forecast captured altcoin momentum. Yet, the analysis remains grounded—no guarantees, just probabilities based on structure.

Comparing to altcoins, Bitcoin’s purity shines. Ethereum faces upgrade uncertainties, while others grapple with regulatory scrutiny. BTC, post-halving, operates on a predictable issuance schedule: 900 new coins daily versus 6.25 pre-event. This scarcity, combined with the retest, fortifies the bullish narrative. Traders should watch the $102,000-$104,000 band; a close above $108,000 could accelerate momentum, per Bollinger Band squeezes on the four-hour chart.

Risk factors include geopolitical tensions or Fed policy shifts, but historical resilience—surviving 2022’s crypto winter—suggests durability. DonAlt’s balanced view: not thrilled, but optimistic on the map. For investors, this means opportunity in dips, with dollar-cost averaging proving effective in 70% of past cycles according to Fidelity Digital Assets research.

In summary, Bitcoin’s bullish setup, centered on the $104,000 retest, integrates primary technicals and secondary on-chain signals for a compelling 2025 outlook. As the asset evolves, forward-thinking strategies will capitalize on this reset, driving toward new highs in a structured rally.