Arthur Hayes Reveals 25% Prediction Success Rate, Emphasizes Profitability with Long-term Bitcoin Trends

COINOTAG news, September 27, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes revealed on Thursday that his market prediction success rate hovers at a modest 25%. Over the past year, he confidently acknowledges only 2 correct predictions. Yet, Hayes emphasized in a recent article that his overall profitability stems from capitalizing on macroeconomic shifts over extended periods. “A 25% accuracy rate is rather regrettable for most,” Hayes conceded, using baseball as an analogy for the precision of his forecasts. His self-assessment spans significant market forecasts from November 2023 to September 2024, addressing Treasury issuance dynamics, banking crises, cryptocurrency price trends, and central bank policy shifts. While acknowledging the challenges of short-term predictions, Hayes reaffirmed his conviction in the concept of a “volatility super cycle,” underpinning his perspective on the long-term market trajectory.