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On April 4th, Bank of America’s prominent strategist, Michael Hartnett, indicated that potential declines in the stock market, oil prices, bond yields, and the US dollar could significantly enhance market risk appetite. However, he cautioned that a persistently weak job market coupled with rising fiscal policy uncertainties could detrimentally impact asset prices. Hartnett outlined three distinct scenarios for the S&P 500 index, each warranting unique investment strategies. At a level of 5400, he recommends investing in Emerging Markets (EM) and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) should the US dollar weaken. For the index range of 5100-5200, his strategy includes acquisitions in small-cap stocks likely to react to policy developments, alongside home builders and Asian technology firms. If the index drops to levels between 4800-5000 amid a fall in Trump’s approval rating to 40-45%, Hartnett advocates for a robust increase in positions targeting risk assets.
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