Bank of Japan December 2025 Rate Decision: Kuroda’s Hawkish Speech Drives Rate-Hike Odds to 85%

Market watchers tracked by PolyBeats showed a dramatic swing in odds around the Bank of Japan‘s December 2025 policy decision, with the 25bp rate hike probability rising to 85% from 50%, while the hold probability fell to 14%.

The trigger was former BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda‘s December 1 Nagoya speech, which signaled a hawkish tilt and stated that the policy-rate decision at the December 18–19 meeting should be weighed as appropriate amid inflation and yen depreciation pressures.

Where October 2025 commentary emphasized external risks to wages and profits, the new tone centers on internal price dynamics, pushing traders to treat the December move as the base case and signaling a policy normalization.

Investors should monitor the December meeting for confirmation of the policy path and currency implications, integrating this view into risk controls and asset allocation decisions.