Bitcoin as a Long-Term Inflation Hedge Amid Rising U.S. Debt, Michael Howell Says

Global macro backdrop remains dominated by persistent inflationary dynamics, prompting a renewed focus on hedges. In his latest note, Michael Howell argues the inflation trend could endure for decades, making Bitcoin and gold attractive as portfolio hedges and risk controls.

Using data from the Congressional Budget Office, Howell notes the U.S. federal debt stock has surged roughly tenfold since 2000, while the S&P 500 has advanced less than fivefold and gold has climbed about 12x, underpinning long-run value for Bitcoin and bullion.

Regarding market cycles, he finds no definitive four-year pattern, but the Bitcoin halving narrative remains relevant. The current trajectory suggests the cycle is gradually converging, advising investors to balance long-term trends with cyclical shifts.

For strategy, consider Bitcoin, gold, and high-quality inflation beneficiaries—residential real estate and pricing-power equities—as core exposure. Tactical moves at cycle inflection points can enhance risk-adjusted returns.