Bitcoin as a Macro Asset: Raoul Pal Predicts a 5.4-Year Debt Cycle Peaking in 2026 at Solana Breakpoint

COINOTAG News reports from the Solana Breakpoint Conference on December 11, where Raoul Pal, Real Vision co-founder and author of The Global Macro Investor, presented a debt-driven macro view. Pal links a declining labor force participation rate to a shrinking working-age pool, noting how demographic shifts can push the debt-to-GDP ratio higher as growth slows. He frames these dynamics as a central risk for global markets and policy credibility.

Pal argues that currency depreciation has historically served as a tool to monetize debt, and that central banks may re-evaluate balance sheets amid abundant liquidity. He estimates near-term injections of about $80 trillion, a factor he says could influence risk assets and policy expectations as the macro backdrop evolves. He frames crypto as a macro asset, with a 5.4-year cadence where the trough may have passed and an upswing could unfold toward late 2026, tied to the broader business cycle.