Bitcoin at the 21-Week Moving Average: Key Trend Threshold for Breakout or Deeper Pullback

Matrixport notes that the 21-week moving average has re-emerged as a critical reference point for the Bitcoin trend. This threshold has historically served as a hinge for bull-bear conversions: prices above it correlate with a shift toward a bullish regime, while a sustained dip below often signals the onset of a market correction. If BTC cannot reclaim this level in a timely fashion, the ongoing consolidation could extend into a deeper pullback, increasing downside risk should macro conditions deteriorate.

Even as the pullback remains relatively mild, the prevailing view that the Fed will continue its interest-rate cuts helps temper near-term risk, provided U.S. economic momentum holds. Historically, the preferred entry point emerges when Bitcoin briefly dips below the moving average, then reclaims it and sustains a breakout above for an extended period. Until that signal materializes, investors are advised to maintain cautious positioning and robust risk controls.