Bitcoin Bear Market Nears End as Four-Year Cycle Is Broken and Spot ETF Sparks New Market Dynamics, Says Bitwise CEO

COINOTAG News reported on November 16 that Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley outlined observations about a recurring Bitcoin four-year cycle and its potential impact on markets. He suggested traders often anticipate a bear phase in 2026, shaping risk positioning today.

The analysis highlights a first-order effect: investors may begin divesting in 2025 to sidestep a forthcoming drawdown, altering spot volumes and risk metrics as participants recalibrate expectations around the next cycle.

The second-order effect posits that selling in 2025 could render that year bearish, eroding the predictability of the four-year pattern and prompting a reassessment of historical models.

Hunter Horsley argues the four-year cycle may be a relic amid a restructured market space driven by the Bitcoin spot ETF, new participants, and evolving dynamics — signaling a shift in the research and development climate for crypto assets.