Bitcoin Bear Market Signals Emerge as On-Chain Demand Slows, CryptoQuant Warns

CryptoQuant’s on-chain analysis indicates Bitcoin demand growth has cooled after a sequence of cycle highs, slipping below the longer-term trend since October 2025. With demand largely realized, the cushion underpinning price support may be tightening.

In the derivatives arena, risk appetite has cooled as the funding rate for perpetual futures (365-day moving average) fell to its lowest since December 2023, signaling diminished willingness to hold long positions—a dynamic often associated with bear markets.

From a technical standpoint, BTC has breached the 365-day moving average, eroding a longstanding reference that has historically marked transitions between bullish and bearish regimes.

On the downside, the realized price sits near $56,000, implying a potential drawdown of up to 55% from recent highs, while the mid-term support sits near $70,000.