Bitcoin Breakout Hurdle: Implied Volatility Falls to 44% Amid OG Holder Sell-Off and Slowing ETF Demand, Jeff Park Warns

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Bitcoin‘s current price action remains structurally hesitant, according to Bitwise advisor Jeff Park. He argues the market setup is not conducive to a durable rally because Bitcoin OG holders continue to net-sell, and demand from ETFs and other institutional avenues has cooled. In this backdrop, a meaningful breakout would require renewed interest and a shift in fundamentals to support a sustained move higher.

A genuine upside breakout hinges on a re-expansion of implied volatility, Park notes, with a sustained uptick essential to extend gains. He referenced prior comments in November about volatility being a decisive factor and noted the appearance of an early breakout signal at that time; while volatility did rise briefly, it has since softened. The implied volatility gauge has fallen from a late-November peak around 63% to roughly 44% over the past two weeks, tempering near-term upside expectations.