CryptoQuant Research Director Julio Moreno notes that Bitcoin is currently in a bear market driven by weak demand. Since 2023, three on-chain demand waves have been associated with the approval of a US spot Bitcoin ETF, the US election outcome, and the so‑called Bitcoin Treasury Company bubble. As of early October 2025, however, growth in on-chain demand has fallen below the long‑term trend, suggesting that the majority of new demand in this cycle has been absorbed and key price supports are diminishing.

In Q4 2025, the spot Bitcoin ETF market has shifted to net selling, with holdings down roughly 24,000 BTC, a notable contrast to the robust accumulation seen in Q4 2024. Meanwhile, addresses holding 100–1,000 BTC—largely ETFs and Treasury entities—are running below trend, echoing the demand weakness observed at the late‑2021 phase before the 2022 bear move.