COINOTAG News reports that digital asset brokerage K33 highlights a significant correlation between Bitcoin ETF inflows and price returns, contrasting with the relatively neutral market impact of corporate Bitcoin treasury acquisitions. According to K33’s research director, Vetle Lunde, recent analysis confirms that Bitcoin price movements remain strongly linked to ETF inflows, with an R² value of 0.80 over the past month, indicating that ETF activity explains approximately 80% of Bitcoin’s return variance.
Conversely, the influence of companies holding Bitcoin in their treasury reserves appears more nuanced. Lunde emphasizes that while firms like Strategy continue to drive market demand through direct Bitcoin purchases funded by debt or equity, many newer entrants employ alternative acquisition methods. Notably, over 50 treasury reserve projects launched recently have obtained Bitcoin via in-kind share swaps with major holders, a mechanism that does not generate fresh market demand.
For instance, Twenty One, backed by SoftBank, amassed 37,230 BTC through share swaps involving Tether and Bitfinex. This structure effectively reallocates existing Bitcoin holdings rather than injecting new capital into the market, potentially diverting funds away from direct Bitcoin purchases and dampening net buying pressure.