Bitcoin ETF Net Inflows Surge but Limited Spot Exposure Could Curb Bull Market, On-Chain Analyst Murphy Warns

On-chain data analyst Murphy told COINOTAG News on September 15 that ETF net inflows are commonly viewed as evidence of institutional accumulation in BTC. Historically, a measurable correlation has been observed between substantial ETF net inflows and subsequent BTC price appreciation, making on-chain data and institutional positioning key metrics for market participants.

Murphy highlighted that combined net inflows on September 10–11 exceeded 9,700 BTC, a pattern reminiscent of inflows in April and June that coincided with bull-market onsets. The recent episode, however, differed in composition: prior rallies showed ETF holdings rising more than changes in CME futures positioning—signaling direct spot ETF demand—whereas the September inflows generated relatively limited spot exposure.

Consequently, sustained upward momentum would require both continued ETF net inflows and meaningful spot-market buying to translate into durable price support. This analysis is provided for educational purposes and is not investment advice.