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As markets await the Federal Reserve policy decision, traders price in a 25 basis-point rate cut, with bets on a slower pace of balance-sheet reduction. A dovish tilt would ease financial conditions and support risk assets, including crypto, into year‑end.
Trading activity remains subdued as centralized exchanges show thin liquidity and order-book depth sits at roughly 40% of pre‑settlement levels, signaling cautious positioning ahead of the decision.
Wintermute data show stablecoin supply has risen for the first time since September, indicating that macro tailwinds are translating into fresh inflows of funds into crypto markets.
Funding rates for major perpetual futures have turned positive, while BTC and ETH open interest is rebuilding. Historical trends suggest Bitcoin often posts stronger gains in Q4, reinforcing the case for a potential breakout as the quarter unfolds.
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