Bitcoin Faces Mid-$95K Supply Pressure as 80K–82K Support Remains Key, Says QCP Amid Mixed Macro Signals

QCP’s daily briefing notes Bitcoin trading above $89,000 as risk sentiment improves, lifting the December rate cut probability toward 85%. Yet macro signals remain mixed: inflation stays elevated even as the labor market softens. Market participants will parse Initial jobless claims and ADP payrolls data later this week for fresh directional cues.

Credit indicators for AI and technology equities are flashing caution, with CDS spreads widening. Trader concern over Nvidia’s accounts receivable and inventory remains a watchpoint. In the crypto space, sentiment tracks the broader risk-off move, with persistent outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs signaling cautious positioning.

Attention on MicroStrategy intensifies as its sizable BTC holdings near break-even, stirring talk of a potential MSCI index adjustment. With year-end hedging activity rising, open interest in bullish options stays robust. QCP warns of looming supply pressure around the mid-$95,000 level, while the $80,000–$82,000 zone remains a critical support anchor.