Bitcoin Implied Volatility at 45% as Traders Bet on $100K–$120K Rally and Hedge with Puts Near $85K

COINOTAG News, December 18, citing The Block, reports that Derive founder Nick Forster sees traders shifting toward a defensive market structure. The 30-day Bitcoin implied volatility sits near 45%, with the Bitcoin skew around -5%. The longer horizon remains anchored through Q1–Q2 next year.

As expiry approaches, positioning demonstrates polarization. At the $100,000 and $120,000 strike levels, open interest in call options continues to climb, indicating bets on a potential rebound even as hedging activity persists.

On the risk side, traders accumulate significant put option exposure near the $85,000 strike to guard against a deeper pullback. The option-implied probabilities still depict a tough environment: roughly 30% odds of reaching $100,000 and about 10% to reclaim the all-time high, underscoring tempered near-term expectations.