Bitcoin in Late-Stage Bull Market as S&P 500 Gains and Q3 Earnings Beat Sustain Risk-On Sentiment

According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel, both Bitcoin and the S&P 500 are exhibiting late‑cycle bullish characteristics, as the index posts a 52‑week return near 13%, suggesting investors still favor risk assets.

There is a measured 0.26 correlation between BTC and the S&P 500, implying Bitcoin often moves with equities but retains its independence from the broader stock cycle. Macro narratives and political developments can swiftly shift risk sentiment and impact price action.

As the Q4 2025 focus shifts to corporate earnings, the market digests a changed yield trajectory after two years of higher yields. In the third‑quarter season, 58 companies have reported and all surpassed estimates, averaging a 571 bps beat. The earnings growth outlook has nudged from 7% to 8%, a hallmark of late‑cycle strength.