K33 Research, in a recent report, notes that selling pressure from long-term Bitcoin holders is nearing a saturation phase after years of distribution. Approximately 1.6 million BTC were reactivated, equating to roughly $138 billion at current prices, signaling continued on-chain selling by early adopters.

The current cycle diverges from 2017’s ICO-driven distribution, reflecting a deep liquidity realization rather than impulsive selling. The data points to on-chain activity aligning with demand from the US Bitcoin spot ETF and corporate funding needs.

Looking ahead, K33 projects a gradual cooling of selling pressure. About one-fifth of the BTC supply has reactivated over two years, with a potential flattening of the downtrend by 2026, supported by quarter-end and early-quarter rebalancing dynamics that could trigger phase-related capital inflows.