Bitcoin Leads Market Reset as Deleveraging Eases, Funding Returns to Neutral, and Open Interest Falls, Wintermute Market Report Says

COINOTAG’ Wintermute market brief shows that rising Bank of Japan rate-hike expectations have broken last week’s stability, triggering deleveraging in the crypto market. Risk positions have contracted as borrowing costs move higher and macro narratives gain traction, with funding turning negative and leverage retreating.

From a structure perspective, risk appetite appears to recalibrate toward macro-driven pricing. The basis has slipped to a cyclical trough, with Bitcoin‘s 90-day basis near 4-5% and Ethereum around 3-4%, indicating persistent long leverage but waning pressure for liquidations. Open interest in perpetual contracts has fallen from about $230B in October to roughly $135B, relieving excess leverage.

Spot activity has strengthened as spot trading share rises; Thanksgiving vacation muted activity, yet depth of supply held up. With lower leverage, negative funding, and healthier spot participation, the market may pivot toward a restructuring phase if macro conditions stabilize and fundamentals stay credible.