Bitcoin May Have Finished Its Four-Year Halving Cycle and Could Enter a Dormant 2026, Says Fidelity’s Jurien Timmer

Bitcoin price outlook remains constructive for the long run, according to Fidelity’s Global Macro Director Jurien Timmer in a post on X. He argues that Bitcoin may have completed another four-year halving cycle in both price and timing, noting a 145-month uptrend culminated near a $125,000 milestone reached in October, aligning with historical patterns.

He cautions that Bitcoin’s traditional winter phase tends to last about a year, suggesting 2026 could resemble a dormant year with support anchored between $65,000 and $75,000, a range that may provide a floor amid evolving macro conditions.

On the asset mix, gold delivered standout performance in 2025, contrasting with Bitcoin’s softer trajectory, with gold up about 65% year-to-date and still subject to bull-market characteristics. He adds that neither asset is likely to revert meaningfully in the near term as macro momentum persists.