Bitcoin Near Its $98K Fair Value as MVRV Mean-Reversion Signals Possible Bear Market Cycle

COINOTAG News, November 6: Analyst Murphy notes that Bitcoin has edged toward what he considers its fair value near $98,000 amid the latest pullback. The fair value metric uses the mean of historical MVRV; when market value-to-realized value sits near its long-run average, BTC tends toward a mean-reverting center.

On-chain indicators imply limited bubble risk. With a rational price path, value discovery and fresh demand could re-emerge, while a further drop may reflect an oversold regime and fading confidence, pushing hedging activity higher. Bitcoin Profit Supply Inflation Price (PSIP) stands at 72%, placing it in the bull-market pullback window of 70–75%. When excluding Satoshis and lost coins, the ratio falls further, suggesting roughly 40% of circulating chips sit at an unrealized loss. A rising share of long-term holders in loss also signals a potential bottoming range.

This analysis is for educational purposes and should not be considered investment advice.