Bitcoin Options Expiry Signals IV Rebound: 143k BTC Contracts, Put/Call 0.51, Max Pain at $98K, $13B Notional

According to Greek.live researcher Adam, the current options expiry snapshot shows 143,000 BTC options due to expire, with a Put/Call ratio of 0.51 and a maximum pain near $98,000, implying a notional exposure around $13 billion. In parallel, 572,000 ETH options are on the expiry slate, a Put/Call ratio of 0.48, a maximum pain near $3,400, and a notional value roughly $17.1 billion.

Implied volatility has rebounded, with BTC’s main-term IV around 45% and ETH’s main-term IV below 70%, placing both assets among the year’s higher volatility regimes. Bitcoin activity shows sustained post-expiry trading volume and a rising trading share driven by position rollovers, while Ethereum exhibits comparatively fewer high-volume executions, reflecting distinct market mechanics.

Market conditions in the Q4 are stretched by macro uncertainties and wide dispersion, underscoring that leveraged bets carry elevated risk. Analysts caution that the divergence across crypto pairs reduces the appeal of aggressive carry trades and highlights the need for prudent risk controls.