Bitcoin Options Market Turns Bearish in Q4 as Whales Roll Positions Amid Heightened Volatility

Market observers say the Bitcoin options market was upbeat in Q3 about year-end highs, with the so‑called Q4 market or “holiday rally” terms circulating even as Bitcoin slid. However, the late‑summer pullback and the ongoing November softness have eroded that structure, leaving bearish sentiment as the prevailing consensus and undermining the case for a decisive late‑year rally.

From the data lens, declines in realized volatility (RV), implied volatility (IV), and 25‑day Skew have not quelled fear. Medium‑ to long‑term option readings point to a continued bearish bias into year‑end and early next year, with whales pushing to roll positions as price swings intensify near monthly expirations.

Analysts see a tentative short-term bottom forming, yet appetite for fresh downside has faded and price action is expected to oscillate. The near‑term outlook remains precarious, with persistent volatility expectations and elevated risk premia suggesting traders should stay cautious into the final trading weeks.