Bitcoin Outlook: Arthur Hayes’ “Long Live the King” — USD/CNY Money Supply Shift Makes This Bull Market Unlike Previous Cycles

COINOTAG News, October 9th: BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes published an essay, “Long Live the King!”, arguing that Bitcoin bull peaks historically correlate with shifts in USD/CNY price and supply dynamics. He reviews three cycles from 2009–2021, concluding that periods of slowing credit growth and rising rates in the US/China coincide with tops, whereas aggressive US quantitative easing or Chinese credit expansion tends to bolster Bitcoin prices.

Hayes contends the current cycle diverges from a strict four‑year cadence, noting the Federal Reserve‘s easing bias and China’s move away from deflation as potential tailwinds for continued upside. This is an analytical framework rather than investment advice; market participants should monitor key macro indicators—interest rates, liquidity injection, and credit growth in the US and China—to assess risk and timing.