Bitcoin Price Analysis: Realized Supply Ratio Signals Neutral Market Ahead of Potential Surge

On June 30, CryptoQuant analyst AXEL Adler Jr highlighted a key Bitcoin indicator derived from the realized supply distribution, which measures the current Bitcoin price against the aggregate investment cost of all holders. The realized supply quantifies the total dollar value based on the last on-chain transfer price of each Bitcoin. This metric is expressed through the formula: Bitcoin price divided by realized supply equals the ratio. Presently, Bitcoin’s price slightly exceeds the annual average ratio, mirroring conditions seen in November 2024, when Bitcoin subsequently surged from $74,000 to $107,000. This data suggests that Bitcoin is trading within a neutral valuation range, indicating neither an overbought nor oversold market environment. Investors and analysts can interpret this as a signal of market equilibrium, reflecting balanced demand relative to underlying investment costs.