Federal Reserve officials will release the updated interest rate decision and the latest dot plot tonight, with markets parsing the median trajectory for signs of further interest rate cuts. Multiple firms have issued pre-release forecasts that set divergent expectations for the remainder of the year.
Some major banks, including JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, Barclays and Bank of Montreal, project the dot plot median could signal additional easing this year—ranging from three cuts to a cumulative 75 basis points—reflecting a modestly more accommodative policy path than in June.
Conversely, institutions such as StoneX, UBS, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley anticipate the median may remain more conservative, implying only 50 basis points of cuts; market participants will also scrutinize published economic outlooks for guidance.