Bitcoin Retreats from ATH as One-Year MVRV Z-Score Drops Below Zero — $106K Support Crucial, $118K Reclaim Needed for Recovery

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr reported via COINOTAG that Bitcoin has pulled back from its all-time high, with the one-year MVRV Z-Score sliding to neutral territory just below zero. This decline signals that unrealized profits on the network have compressed relative to the one-year average, leaving more supply around breakeven or in loss.

On-chain metrics identify a critical short-term support at the short-term holder realized price near $106,000. A sustained break under this support level would place short-term holders in aggregate loss and materially increase downside risk to the market’s near-term price structure.

A credible recovery scenario, according to the same metrics, would require the Z-Score to climb back above zero while Bitcoin reclaims and holds above $118,000, which would indicate re-expansion of network-level unrealized gains.