Bitcoin Rises as U.S. CPI Cools and Fed Rate-Cut Bets Extend Through 2026

U.S. November CPI cooled, with headline CPI at 2.7% YoY and core CPI at 2.6%, the softest readings in over two years. Despite the October data gap from the government shutdown, the disinflation path remains intact, and the USD eased as gold and other non-dollar assets rebounded.

Fed funds futures have shifted toward a deeper easing cycle next year, pricing roughly 300 basis points of cuts by end-2026 and signaling a longer-rate decline narrative. A dovish tilt could emerge if inflation and payrolls continue to soften.

Initial claims came in at 224,000, indicating the labor market remains orderly and tempering expectations for aggressive near-term cuts.

For crypto and risk assets, the key cues are: yield-curve dynamics, USD strength fading, and cooling inflation with softening employment. The setup suggests price action will likely unfold through gradual pullbacks and rising ranges rather than sharp, one-way moves.