According to a recent analysis from Matrixport, Bitcoin has notably posted a positive return during the Chinese New Year for 11 out of the last 12 years, reflecting a robust 83% success rate. This historical performance underscores the cryptocurrency’s potential to yield gains in this timeframe. Presently, Bitcoin is navigating a complex landscape characterized by conflicting market signals. The daily reversal indicators suggest the asset is nearing potential support following an oversold condition, yet the weekly metrics indicate it remains in an overbought state.
On the macroeconomic side, the tightening of liquidity and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policies have infused bearish sentiment into the market. Conversely, optimism persists due to expectations that the U.S. may establish a Bitcoin reserve, coupled with a pro-cryptocurrency approach anticipated from the upcoming Trump administration. Since the last FOMC meeting in December 2024, there has been a noticeable slowdown in stablecoin minting, indicating reduced fiat inflows. However, signs indicate that the Bitcoin funding rate could be on the rebound, hinting at a resurgence in trading volumes.
As the Chinese Lunar New Year approaches on January 29th, Bitcoin enters a statistically advantageous 20-day trading span. This period may present traders with opportunities to capitalize on potential upward movements, thereby enhancing the appeal of long positions within the market.