Bitcoin Slows Through Christmas Week as Implied Volatility Drops and Market Heads for a Flat to Downward Trend

The Christmas week has historically seen lighter liquidity as U.S. and European markets pause; U.S. exchanges close on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, a pattern often extending into early January.

Friday, December 26, marks settlement day, with pressure on risk positions as more than 50% of total options open interest awaits expiration. Many institutions have rolled over positions ahead of the window.

Since last week, the implied volatility across major Bitcoin and Ethereum expiry dates has retreated, accompanied by a rise in block trades, signaling cautious positioning.

The combination of lower volatility, holiday liquidity gaps, and year‑end rotation has driven a notable decline in IV: Bitcoin expiry IV down over 5% in the past month, with short‑to‑medium term IV down more than 10%; Ethereum shows even larger declines.

Overall, data point to a subdued near‑term market with expectations for flat to modestly lower price action over the next two weeks as participants await clearer cues once liquidity normalizes.