Bitcoin to $250,000 by End-2025: Arthur Hayes Predicts a 170% Rally Fueled by Liquidity Tightening and End of QT

During a recent appearance on the Milk Road Show, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, reaffirmed a lofty $250,000 target for Bitcoin by year-end 2025, signaling a potential 170% upside from current levels. Hayes notes that with roughly 33 days remaining in 2025, the key outcome will hinge on a single decisive move, and he remains resolute in his forecast despite evolving market dynamics.

Hayes attributes the next leg higher to the unwinding of dollar liquidity and the anticipated end of quantitative tightening, along with evolving macro policy. He references the Federal Reserve’s October rate cut as an important context for a renewed BTC cycle and the potential to surpass the prior peak around $126,220.

Hayes also hedges expectations, warning that misjudgments are possible even as he remains in a long position and watches for confirmation signals. His measured view underscores a risk‑managed approach, with no guarantees as Bitcoin trends unfold amid policy shifts and liquidity dynamics.