On-chain analyst Murphy noted that Glassnode’s Investor Sentiment Confidence Index showing a move from hesitation back to positive does not constitute proof of a sustained Bitcoin uptrend. Historical instances such as the rebounds in July 2023 and June 2024 saw recoveries capped near prior highs, underscoring that a sentiment improvement alone is not a definitive buy signal for BTC.
Market dynamics remain complex: while retroactive analysis can show gains for investors who bought at peaks and held, that outcome requires uncommon conviction. Murphy emphasized that when the sentiment index flips from positive to hesitant it often signals a confidence reversal, and the persistence of the four-year cycle is not guaranteed for all market participants. Short-term bullish and bearish phases may become the dominant framework, reducing reliance on extreme percentage-move heuristics to define cycles.