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On February 25th, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes conveyed pertinent insights regarding the current behavior of institutional investors concerning IBIT holdings. Hayes noted that a significant number of IBIT holders are hedge funds that achieve returns exceeding those of short-term U.S. Treasury bonds through long positions in ETFs and short trades on CME futures. He indicated that a potential decline in BTC prices could lead these funds to react by selling off IBIT to cover their CME futures positions, resulting in a tightening of the basis. Currently, the profitability of these funds is bolstered by a basis close to U.S. Treasury bond yields, prompting them to liquidate their positions during U.S. trading hours for profit realization. Hayes anticipates a bearish trend, suggesting a possible retraction to the $70,000 level.
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