BTC ETF Net Inflows Signal Real Spot-Buying Pressure, Analysis Finds

On-chain analyst Murphy examined whether ETF net inflows truly reflect buying pressure across digital assets. Since the introduction of BTC and ETH spot ETFs, fund flow metrics have become a core market signal, with inflows commonly interpreted as institutional accumulation in on-chain data.

For BTC, the analysis finds a notable correlation between price appreciation and ETF net inflows while changes in CME open interest remain comparatively muted. That pattern suggests traditional investors are primarily accessing exposure via spot ETFs, implying sustained spot buying demand and a preference for longer-term position-taking over leveraged futures strategies.

By contrast, ETH exhibits concurrent increases in price, ETF inflows and a larger rise in futures open interest, sometimes accounting for a sizable portion of flows. This behavior indicates blended approaches—including basis arbitrage and directional spot-plus-futures tactics—rather than exclusive reliance on spot ETF exposure.