CME FedWatch Signals 87.2% Chance of December 25bp Rate Cut

According to CME Group‘s FedWatch data released on December 3, traders price an 87.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with a 12.8% probability of no change. This setup signals a broad policy easing stance and sets the macro backdrop for risk assets.

For crypto markets, such policy expectations tend to influence liquidity and risk appetite, supporting assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum as investors reprice macro risk. The current odds framework underscores how Fed rate expectations can drive capital flows and volatility in digital assets.

As December nears, market participants will assess additional macro data and central-bank guidance to confirm the trajectory. The pricing implies a tactical tilt toward easing, making macro signals and Fed communications the primary drivers of crypto and broader market sentiment.