As the calendar turns toward the Fed’s policy meeting, crypto traders brace for potential volatility tied to the Fed rate decision and Chair Powell’s forward guidance. In a macro note, Janus Henderson argues the December decision is unlikely to redefine the longer-term trajectory, though uncertainty could spark short‑term risk‑asset moves.

Meanwhile, Wilmington Trust contends that markets have largely priced in prior actions and that the focal point will be the central bank’s policy guidance and the data‑dependence stance. Some observers question the implied probability of a rate cut, focusing on Powell’s rhetoric and the narrow policy vote, which could influence liquidity flows into digital assets.

Nomura economists highlight notable uncertainty, warning that the market may underestimate the risk of no cut in December. The debate on dissent among policymakers—plus the rotation of four regional presidents—could reveal the degree of monetary policy independence and impending pressure, with crypto liquidity and risk appetite in focus as traders recalibrate.