Federal Reserve is expected to deliver a rate cut in early hours, but hawkish guidance may temper relief. A government shutdown–induced data gap adds uncertainty, testing how traders interpret monetary policy signals and the policy path for 2025. Crypto markets could stay sensitive to this dynamic as risk assets adjust to the revised rate outlook.

Policy divisions persist: some officials question the need for further cuts amid persistent inflation, while others warn that higher borrowing costs risk cooling growth and employment. The quarterly economic projections will outline the 2026 outlook and implied rate path, though markets expect rapid revisions as fresh data arrives.

For crypto traders, the outcome may reprice risk and liquidity. A tempered stance would support gains in leading assets, while a hawkish tilt could pressure risk assets broadly. Investors should monitor the cadence of policy actions and risk management to navigate the evolving landscape.